12.32 am, Saturday 10 May 2008

The Problem

We would like to rate our ability to play Squash (or Badmington, Table Tennis, Lawn Tennis, ... , or whatever we have chosen as our proxy for one-on-one combat ) against the whole player population, placing ourselves on some universal scale between "best" and "worst". We would like something like the golf-player's handicap.

Unfortunately the only available evidence is a set of pair-wise comparisons that provide a fairish guide as to whether one player is "better" than another, and a poorish guide as to how much. "Better" (when applied to game-playing skills) is an ill-behaved comparator.

Vertical Rule"Taller", by contrast, is a good comparator (of height):

It's unequivocal. If you're taller than me, and I'm taller than John, then — without any doubt at all — you're taller than John.

It's measureable. A height ranking can be established without any measuring tool at all, but equipped with a means of measuring height differences it is possible to do the job better and faster. We could generate a height scale rather than just a ranking. And it would be quicker, because if you're 3 inches taller than me, and I'm 2 inches shorter than John, then I know — without the need for any further measurement — that you're 1 inch taller than John.

The outcome of two-player games obeys neither of these rules. Establishing an unequivocal ranking, still less an unequivocal scale, is therefore much more of a problem.

Leagues

The obvious approach is for everybody to play everybody else. Unfortunately this approach turns out to be either impractical, or arbitrary. And it doesn't work if games are missed, because there is no fair way of representing a null match: awarding a walk-over confuses talent with justice; assuming a draw is an attractive option for the weaker player.

The main problem however, is the number of matches that full competition requires. If a typical squash club were to attempt to match every active player against every other one, then a club of ~250 would need to organise 30,000+ matches. That's clearly impractical, so the traditional solution is tiered leagues and a system of promotion and relegation between them. At that point it becomes arbitrary. The promoted players or clubs have not been tested in the leagues to which they are going, so it might be appropriate to promote more, or less or further. The more leagues there are, the more arbitrary the system becomes. Not only is it arbitrary, it is slow. So slow in fact, that participants can lose their enthusiasm, their youth, their skill, or even their health, before finding equilibrium.

Knock-out competitions

A knock-out competition is a much faster way of discovering the best player. But it can eliminate the second best player in the first round, so as a ranking tool, the knock-out competition is a non-starter.

Ladders

Challenge-based ladders would seem the most direct method of establishing club rankings, but in practice they don't work so well:

  • unless the challenge interval is varied, to reflect the higher density of people of average talent in the middle of the club, progress can be frustratingly slow
  • nothing is gained by accepting a challenge, so it is tempting to decline them.
  • the margin of victory is ignored.
  • match schedules cannot be imposed, so it is easy for rankings to lose their legitimacy.
 
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